Operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s petrol loading gantry have again been halted, with tanker drivers instructed to vacate the facility and the lifting of Premium Motor Spirit suspended until further notice, intensifying speculation about the possibility of another upward review in the refinery’s ex-depot petrol price.
Industry sources confirmed that loading activities for petrol were paused at the facility, creating uncertainty among fuel marketers and depot operators who had positioned tankers at the refinery in anticipation of lifting the product. Drivers already queued at the refinery premises were reportedly asked to leave as the refinery temporarily stopped issuing pro forma invoices and halted fresh transactions related to petrol supply.
The suspension has triggered widespread expectations within the downstream petroleum market that the refinery could soon announce another increase in the ex-gantry price of petrol. Market participants say such pauses in loading activities have recently preceded price adjustments by the refinery, making operators particularly attentive to developments at the facility.
The latest halt in petrol loading comes against the backdrop of multiple price revisions by the refinery in recent days as volatility in global crude oil prices continues to reverberate across petroleum markets. The refinery has already implemented two major adjustments within a short period.
On March 2nd, the refinery increased its ex-depot price for petrol from ₦774 per litre to about ₦874 or ₦875 per litre, representing a rise of roughly ₦100 to ₦101 per litre. The adjustment followed a surge in global crude oil prices, which climbed above the 80-dollar-per-barrel mark amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing concerns about supply disruptions in international energy markets.
That price revision was preceded by a similar operational pause at the refinery when petrol loading was suspended at midnight of March 2nd, temporarily halting product lifting and the issuance of pro forma invoices for marketers. The suspension was limited to petrol, while the loading of Automotive Gas Oil, commonly known as diesel, continued without interruption.
Within days of that adjustment, the refinery reportedly implemented another upward revision of its ex-gantry petrol price. On Friday, March 6th, the refinery raised the ex-depot price to about ₦995 per litre, marking the second increase in less than a week.
The cumulative effect of the adjustments represents an increase of about ₦221 per litre in the refinery’s petrol gantry price within a short period, a development that has already begun to ripple through Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market.
Once depot prices rise, retailers typically adjust pump prices to reflect the new cost of acquisition, transportation, and distribution. Following the earlier adjustment to around ₦874 or ₦875 per litre, several retail outlets across the country quickly revised their pump prices upward. Some stations operated by major marketers and independent retailers reportedly increased their pump prices by roughly ₦80 to ₦100 per litre in response to the change in the refinery’s gantry price.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has increasingly become a central reference point for petrol pricing in Nigeria’s deregulated downstream petroleum market. With a refining capacity of about 650,000 barrels per day, the refinery is the largest single-train refinery in Africa and one of the largest in the world, designed to significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products.
Despite its domestic location, however, the refinery’s pricing structure remains closely tied to developments in the international crude oil market because crude feedstock costs, foreign exchange fluctuations, shipping expenses, and replacement value calculations all influence the final cost of refined products.
The recent adjustments have largely been attributed to the sharp rise in global crude oil prices, which climbed to about 91 dollars per barrel amid intensifying geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, as well as concerns over potential disruptions to shipping routes around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors. 
Market analysts have warned that continued instability in the Middle East could push global crude oil prices even higher if tanker traffic in the region becomes restricted or if shipping insurance costs escalate. Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector has been particularly sensitive to such global developments since the removal of fuel subsidies and the transition to a deregulated market framework, under which petrol prices are largely determined by market forces rather than direct government price controls.
Under the current system, fluctuations in crude oil prices, foreign exchange rates, logistics costs, and refinery pricing decisions directly influence the retail price of petrol across the country.
If the refinery announces another upward review of its ex-depot petrol price following the latest suspension of loading activities, Industry observers say the retail pump price of petrol across Nigeria could approach or exceed the 1,050 naira per litre range once transportation costs, marketers’ margins, and distribution expenses are factored in.
Such an increase would likely place additional pressure on households, transport operators, and businesses already grappling with elevated inflation and rising operating costs across the Nigerian economy.
Samuel Aina