Iran marked the appointment of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader on Monday with an unprecedented barrage of missiles targeting Israel and Gulf states, sending global oil markets into turmoil. The strikes came as Iran entered a new era following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had led the country for nearly four decades, and as the conflict with Israel and the United States entered its tenth day.
Analysts noted that the military escalation immediately sent world oil prices soaring, with crude futures rising by nearly a third as the region braced for further instability. Saudi Arabia reported intercepting drones aimed at its oil fields, while Bahrain’s state energy company, Bapco, warned that a missile strike on its Al Ma’ameer facility might prevent it from fulfilling export contracts. The attacks also affected the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, raising concerns among international energy markets and prompting swift reactions across Asia.
Asian economies were particularly sensitive to the developments, with Japanese and South Korean stock markets closing down by more than five percent on Monday amid growing investor fears. In the Philippines, motorists queued at fuel stations to fill their tanks, while Vietnam announced plans to scrap tariffs on fuel imports in an effort to stabilize domestic supply and costs.
The military escalation coincided with the formal confirmation of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment by Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the country’s top clerical body. Iranian state media emphasized that the decision was made decisively despite what it described as “the brutal aggression of the criminal America and the evil Zionist regime,” signaling Tehran’s defiance in the face of external pressure.
Footage released by state television showed a missile emblazoned with the slogan, “At your command, Sayyid Mojtaba,” ready for launch, symbolizing the younger Khamenei’s immediate assertion of authority.
The missile strikes caused significant material damage, particularly at Bahrain’s Al Ma’ameer oil facility, igniting a large fire and disrupting operations. In response, Bapco, along with its counterparts in Qatar and Kuwait, declared “force majeure,” effectively warning international partners that events beyond its control could lead to missed export targets.
The declaration underscores the growing regional risk to global energy security, particularly in the Gulf, which supplies a significant portion of the world’s oil. Analysts warned that prolonged disruption could intensify volatility in crude prices and impact fuel costs worldwide.
The current military escalation follows weeks of internal unrest in Iran, as authorities under the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suppressed nationwide protests, resulting in thousands of deaths according to human rights groups. The younger Khamenei, who assumes leadership in this turbulent context, is widely considered a hardliner likely to continue his father’s rejection of dissent and opposition. Observers suggest that his rise could entrench Tehran’s confrontational posture in both domestic and foreign policy.
International scrutiny intensified as U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed Mojtaba Khamenei in the lead-up to his appointment, calling him a “lightweight” and warning of U.S. resistance. Speaking to ABC News on Sunday before the official announcement, Trump said, “If he doesn’t get approval from us he’s not going to last long,” highlighting the perception in Washington of the strategic significance of Iran’s new leadership in shaping the ongoing conflict.
Oil Prices Surge Above $100 Amid Iran’s Retaliation and Regional Tensions
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has sent global oil prices soaring, with the benchmark price for a barrel of crude exceeding $100 for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago. The surge came as Iran launched retaliatory strikes against its oil-rich Gulf Arab neighbours, escalating fears of a prolonged military confrontation in a region critical to global energy supply.
Analysts noted that disruptions to oil infrastructure and the heightened risk to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for crude exports, have compounded uncertainty in energy markets, driving prices upward and prompting swift responses from governments and investors worldwide.
In the United States, where gasoline prices remain a politically sensitive issue, President Donald Trump downplayed the spike in crude prices, framing it as a necessary cost in the broader strategy to neutralize Iran’s nuclear threat. Speaking publicly, Trump insisted that the rising energy costs were a tolerable trade-off, calling them a “small price to pay” for what he described as the removal of a significant security risk posed by Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
However, the White House simultaneously took precautionary measures, highlighting that the conflict was unlikely to resolve quickly. The State Department ordered non-emergency staff to evacuate Saudi Arabia, following a drone attack on the U.S. embassy in Riyadh, a clear signal that American officials are bracing for extended instability in the region.
Questions about the duration and trajectory of the war remain a major concern for policymakers and market watchers alike. In an interview with the Times of Israel, President Trump emphasised that any decision to end hostilities would be coordinated closely with Israel’s leadership. “I think it’s mutual… a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account,” he said, signalling that Washington and Jerusalem are maintaining tight strategic alignment amid the ongoing conflict.
Analysts observed that such coordination underscores the intertwined nature of U.S.-Israeli security interests in countering Iran’s regional influence and the potential for the conflict to escalate beyond the immediate theatre.
Meanwhile, Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is consolidating authority with strong support from the country’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Though younger and far less experienced than his late father, he has quickly garnered pledges of loyalty from the Guard, who stated they were “ready for complete obedience and self-sacrifice in carrying out the divine commands.”
Observers note that Khamenei’s appointment reflects continuity in Iran’s hardline policies, particularly in its resistance to foreign pressure and commitment to advancing the strategic objectives of the Islamic Republic.
Regional allies and proxy groups have also rushed to voice support for the new leadership, reinforcing Iran’s network of influence across the Middle East. The Badr Organisation in Iraq, a key political and military ally, described the succession as the “blessed continuity of the path of the Islamic revolution,” signalling its unwavering backing for Tehran’s current course.
Analysts warn that such declarations, coupled with Iran’s immediate military retaliation, suggest the new leadership intends to assert its authority decisively, while maintaining the ideological and geopolitical posture that defined its predecessor’s nearly four-decade rule. The combination of sustained military action, rising oil prices, and regional mobilisation points to a complex and volatile environment in which energy security, diplomacy, and military strategy remain deeply intertwined.
Fierce Clashes Escalate Across the Middle East
The multi-front conflict in the Middle East intensified sharply as Lebanon became a major theatre of confrontation. Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah reported engaging Israeli forces that had landed in eastern Lebanon on 15 helicopters coming across the Syrian border. The escalation in Lebanon followed a series of retaliatory strikes after Hezbollah launched attacks on Israeli positions in response to the killing of the elder Ayatollah Khamenei.
Speaking through its official channels, Hezbollah said that combat remained ongoing, asserting that its fighters “engaged the helicopters and the infiltrating force with appropriate weapons,” signaling that clashes could continue for an extended period.
Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency confirmed the intensity of the confrontation, describing “fierce clashes” around the town of Nabi Sheet, where Israeli operations over the preceding weekend reportedly resulted in 41 deaths. The Lebanese health minister provided broader casualty figures, stating that Israeli strikes have so far killed at least 394 people since the beginning of the conflict, including 83 children and 42 women, highlighting the heavy toll on civilians in the embattled region.
The conflict’s impact has not been limited to Lebanon. In Bahrain, the Ministry of Health reported that 32 people were wounded overnight following an Iranian drone strike on the island of Sitra. Among the injured were particularly vulnerable civilians, including a 17-year-old girl who sustained severe head and eye injuries, as well as a two-month-old infant, according to official statements.
These incidents emphasize the escalating humanitarian crisis that is rippling through Gulf states, where the risk to civilian populations is compounded by the speed and unpredictability of missile and drone attacks. Saudi Arabia also confirmed casualties resulting from the broader regional escalation.
Authorities reported on Sunday that a projectile landed in Al-Kharj province, killing two individuals and wounding 12 others, emphasizing the widespread geographic impact of the conflict beyond Lebanon and Iran’s immediate neighbours.
Iran’s own health ministry provided a grim assessment of civilian losses across the country, reporting that at least 1,200 civilians have been killed and approximately 10,000 wounded since the conflict began. AFP noted that these figures could not be independently verified, but they nonetheless reflect the scale of the crisis facing the population.
In Israel, Iranian missile attacks have reportedly killed 10 people, with the military also confirming the deaths of two Israeli soldiers in Lebanon. The simultaneous reports of casualties in multiple countries illustrate the multi-dimensional nature of the conflict, where military operations, retaliatory strikes, and regional alliances are contributing to a rapidly escalating humanitarian and security crisis.
As the situation unfolds, regional authorities and international observers continue to monitor the widespread effects of the war, from targeted military engagements to the broader toll on civilians in urban and rural areas alike.
The statements issued by Hezbollah and health ministries across the region underline the scale of the human suffering while highlighting the increasingly interconnected nature of military confrontations involving state and non-state actors.