Domestic refining led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied about 61.78 per cent of the country’s petrol needs in January 2026, surpassing imported volumes for the first time in more than a year, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). This development marks a significant milestone in the nation’s long-standing efforts to reduce its reliance on fuel imports, enhance energy security, and leverage domestic production capacity to stabilise supply and conserve scarce foreign exchange.
The NMDPRA, in its January 2026 “State of the Midstream and Downstream Fact Sheet”, disclosed that domestic refining contributed an average of 40.1 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, per day during the month. In contrast, imports by the national oil company and Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) accounted for an average of 24.8 million litres per day, or around 38.22 per cent of total supply. Overall, the average daily petrol supply to the domestic market was 64.9 million litres, while average daily consumption was about 60.2 million litres.
Analysts and officials within the petroleum sector described the January figures as a landmark shift, noting that domestic refining had not exceeded import contributions since January 2025. The improved output from the Dangote refinery helped drive this change. According to the NMDPRA report, the refinery raised its petrol output from 32 million litres per day in December 2025 to 40.1 million litres per day in January 2026, reflecting a 25 per cent month-on-month increase.
The refinery’s ramped-up output underscores its growing role in meeting national petrol demand, but regulators also acknowledged that the facility fell short of its own planned daily supply target. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery had projected it could deliver 50 million litres of petrol per day between December 2025 and January 2026, a target it has yet to fully achieve. Despite this shortfall, the refinery’s performance signifies a substantial reduction in Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel.
Historically, Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector has been heavily reliant on imported refined products, particularly petrol. For decades, the country’s own refineries, operated by the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited at Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, remained largely inefficient or non-operational, leaving the nation heavily dependent on imports to meet domestic fuel needs. Under-investment, operational challenges, and periodic shutdowns meant that domestic supply often lagged well behind demand, compelling marketers to import millions of litres of petrol monthly to fill the gap.
This reliance on imports has placed a significant strain on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves and exposed the nation to global supply disruptions and price volatility. Industry observers have long argued that boosting domestic refining capacity would be critical to addressing these vulnerabilities. The commissioning of the Dangote refinery, a world-class facility located in the Lekki Free Zone, Lagos, with a designed processing capacity of 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was therefore seen as a potential game-changer for Nigeria’s energy landscape.
Since beginning phased operations, the Dangote refinery has steadily increased its output, enabling a greater local supply of PMS and other petroleum products. After initial test runs and production stabilisation, the facility optimised its Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) and motor spirit production blocks, enabling more reliable and higher volumes of output. In January, the refinery also commenced an intensive series of performance test runs in collaboration with its technology provider to validate operational efficiency and adherence to global standards.
Despite the increased domestic output, the refinery still operates at a fraction of its full potential, constrained by ongoing logistical and market factors. The NMDPRA report indicates that the refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of about 61.27 per cent in January. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s three federal refineries managed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company remained shut.
The NMDPRA’s January fact sheet also provided updates on other products in the downstream market, noting that in addition to petrol, Nigeria’s daily consumption of diesel (Automotive Gas Oil) and aviation fuel remained substantial. The report noted average daily consumption of diesel at 19.2 million litres and aviation fuel at 3.5 million litres. Independent refineries smaller than Dangote also contributed minor volumes of diesel during the month, though overall domestic contribution to these products lagged petrol figures significantly. 
Samuel Aina