The National Assembly is set to receive the Federal Government’s proposed N54.46 trillion 2026 budget within the week following the approval of the 2026 to 2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper by the Senate. The Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, made this known after the upper chamber adopted the report of its Committee on Finance, thereby clearing a major constitutional requirement ahead of the presentation of the annual Appropriation Bill by President Bola Tinubu.
Akpabio stated that the passage of the MTEF and Fiscal Strategy Paper marked a critical milestone in the 2026 budget cycle, noting that the document provides the fiscal and macroeconomic foundation upon which the annual budget is based. He explained that with the Senate’s approval secured, the executive arm was now free to transmit the full budget proposal to the National Assembly for legislative consideration.
The Medium Term Expenditure Framework is a statutory document required under the Fiscal Responsibility Act. It outlines government revenue projections, expenditure ceilings, borrowing plans, and macroeconomic assumptions over three years. Without the National Assembly’s approval, the President cannot formally present the annual budget estimates. Over the years, delays or disagreements over the MTEF have often slowed down Nigeria’s budget process, making its timely passage a key concern for both lawmakers and the executive.
The framework approved by the Senate pegs the size of the 2026 federal budget at N54.46 trillion. It projects retained revenue of N34.33 trillion, while new borrowings are estimated at N17.88 trillion to cover the anticipated fiscal deficit. Debt servicing is projected at N15.52 trillion, reflecting the growing pressure of public debt obligations on federal finances. Capital expenditure is estimated at N20.13 trillion, with recurrent non-debt spending and statutory transfers accounting for a significant portion of the remaining allocation.
In adopting the report, the Senate approved key macroeconomic assumptions underpinning the framework. These include an oil price benchmark of 60 dollars per barrel for 2026, a crude oil production target of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate benchmark of N1,512 to the United States dollar. Inflation is projected at 16.5 per cent for the year, while real gross domestic product growth is estimated at 4.68 per cent, reflecting the government’s expectation of gradual economic stabilisation and recovery.
The Senate Committee on Finance, chaired by Senator Sani Musa, noted in its report that the assumptions were considered realistic within the context of global economic uncertainties and domestic fiscal reforms. However, lawmakers expressed concern about Nigeria’s historically weak revenue performance and urged revenue-generating agencies, particularly the Federal Inland Revenue Service, to improve collection efficiency. The committee recommended an upward review of the FIRS revenue target to N35 trillion for 2026, stressing the need to reduce excessive reliance on borrowing.
The approval of the MTEF comes against the backdrop of Nigeria’s ongoing fiscal reforms, including the removal of petrol subsidies, efforts to unify the foreign exchange market, and measures aimed at expanding the tax base. These reforms have been accompanied by short-term economic pressures, including high inflation and currency volatility, but the government has consistently argued that they are necessary to place public finances on a more sustainable footing.
Lawmakers also used the debate on the framework to reflect on challenges encountered in previous budget cycles. Concerns were raised about delays in budget implementation, the persistence of budget rollovers, and the execution of multiple budgets within a single fiscal year. Senators stressed that early submission and passage of the 2026 budget would be critical to improving implementation outcomes and restoring confidence in the budget process.
With the passage of the Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, attention now turns to the formal presentation of the 2026 Appropriation Bill by President Tinubu. Once laid before the National Assembly, both chambers are expected to commence detailed scrutiny of the proposals through committee hearings and plenary debates. This process will involve engagement with ministries, departments, and agencies, as well as possible adjustments to spending priorities and revenue projections before final passage.
The presentation of the budget this week signals the start of what economic stakeholders hope will be a more orderly and timely budget cycle. As Nigeria continues to grapple with fiscal constraints and development challenges, the 2026 budget is expected to play a central role in shaping government priorities on infrastructure, security, social services, and economic growth in the coming year.
Samuel Aina