After more than five years, India and China have agreed to resume direct passenger flights starting late October 2025, marking a measured yet significant step in a broader process of diplomatic re-engagement. That decision comes after a freeze triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and made deeper by intense border tensions, notably the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. According to India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), designated points in both countries will be reconnected, including routes such as Kolkata-Guangzhou starting October 26 via Indian carrier IndiGo; Delhi-Guangzhou and possibly Delhi-Shanghai also feature among anticipated paths, pending airline decisions and regulatory approvals.
Historical and Political Context
The suspension of direct flights began in early 2020, formally under pandemic restrictions, but it persisted even after many travel bans were lifted. The deeper cause was the rupture in India-China relations following the Galwan clash in Ladakh in June 2020, where violent clashes along the Line of Actual Control left Indian and Chinese soldiers dead. That episode ushered in a period of diplomatic freeze, trade restrictions, suspensions of people-to-people exchanges, and mutual distrust.
Since 2024, there have been incremental efforts to de-escalate. India’s granting of visas to Chinese citizens, resumed participation in regional multilateral fora, and increased dialogues on border management have created openings. Modi’s visit to China during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit acted as a kind of diplomatic reset, giving both sides space to re-imagine connectivity without fully resolving all ongoing disputes. The flight reinstatement is both a symbolic gesture and a functional restoration of ties.
What the Resumption Involves
- Timeline and Routes: Flights are proposed to resume by late October 2025, aligned with the winter schedule. IndiGo plans to relaunch the Kolkata-Guangzhou route from October 26. Delhi-Guangzhou is in view; Chinese carriers such as Air China, China Southern, and others are expected to participate once regulatory demands are met.
- Regulatory Requirements: The resumption is contingent upon updated Air Services Agreements (ASAs), safety and bilateral aviation rules compliance, and commercial decisions by the airlines. It will take more than just government declarations , operational readiness, slots, permissions, passenger demand all matter.
- People-to-People & Trade: The restoration is expected to help business travel, tourism, academic exchanges, and improve logistical convenience. Before the freeze, many routes had to route via third countries, increasing travel time and cost. Direct flights will reduce those burdens, improve trade links, and maybe help remedy India’s large trade deficit with China.
Implications — Economic, Strategic, and Diplomatic
Economic and Trade Effects
Resumption of air connectivity can reduce transaction costs, facilitate export shipments, improve supply chain efficiency, and help sectors like tourism, education, manufacturing, and services. For Indian exporters, especially in border or northeastern regions, faster routing and direct access can open up larger Chinese markets. For China, resuming flights also supports inbound tourism and commercial linkages.
However, the benefits may not be instant. Airline profitability depends on passenger demand, regulatory fees, airspace permissions, and ticket pricing. Both sides must ensure visa facilitation, smooth customs and immigration, and possibly harmonized regulatory norms.
Strategic & Security Dimensions
India and China remain careful. Border disputes are unresolved in several stretches; military infrastructure buildup and patrols along the LAC continue. The flight resumption is not a signal of trust unrestricted—it is more a calibrated thaw, aimed at reducing friction without conceding strategic prime issues.
India likely sees this move as a way to assert its own agency—balancing tension and cooperation—and signal to both its regional neighbours and global observers that it can engage pragmatically with a powerful neighbour without being locked in confrontation. For China, restoring civil ties and air connectivity helps project that it is open, stable, and ready to trade, even as geopolitical competition intensifies elsewhere.
Diplomatic Signalling
Flights are often among the first signs of diplomatic warming. People-to-people contact, visible commercial ties, and connectivity are less likely to provoke domestic backlash than, say, military agreements. This move helps India and China restore a degree of normalcy, reduce bilateral friction, and pave the way for deeper discussions on trade, border affairs, and multilateral cooperation.
It also helps signal to global markets that the region is less volatile; foreign investors often watch restrictions on mobility, visa policies, and air connectivity as proxies for political risk.
Risks, Challenges, and What Could Undermine the Move
- Border Disputes Persist: Until underlying security and boundary issues are managed more robustly, another flare-up (military or diplomatic) could again freeze connectivity or prompt travel advisories.
- Operational Hurdles: Airlines must comply with safety audits, overflight rights, slots, and aviation norms. If commercial carriers or regulators delay, flights may start later or with limited frequency.
- Visa & Immigration Friction: Even with flights resumed, if visa regimes remain cumbersome, or if travel policies (health, customs) are inconsistent, many travellers will be discouraged.
- Trade Imbalance Concerns: India’s large trade deficit with China is a long-standing concern. Direct flights may facilitate import flows (both ways), but if exports do not keep up, the economic balance could tilt in ways that raise political concerns in India.
- Public Sentiment & Domestic Politics: For some segments of Indian public opinion, any rapprochement with China remains sensitive, especially after border clashes. Political opponents could use the move to critique the government—if flights resume but other issues (like border incursions) are unresolved, the resumption may be seen as cosmetic.
Looking Ahead: What to Watch
- Whether IndiGo, Air India, and Chinese carriers announce confirmed schedules beyond tentative routes—especially Delhi-China routes.
- Changes to visa policy and immigration procedure that make travel smoother.
- Trade figures in coming months to see whether direct connectivity translates into higher export volumes, especially from northeastern India or border states.
- Diplomatic dialogues following the resumption—whether there are follow-ups on boundary management, water sharing, or regional multilateral initiatives.
- How media and public reaction evolves in both India and China—whether it’s seen as long-term normalization or a temporary easing.
Conclusion
Resuming direct flights between India and China after five years is more than just opening air routes—it is a barometer for bilateral relations, a test of trust, and an early harvest of recent diplomatic overtures. It shows that even amidst competing strategic pressure, states can use connectivity and commerce as levers of stability.
For India, this move offers economic and symbolic gains—restored trade links, tourism, people contact, and a posture of pragmatic engagement. But the success of this step depends on how well it’s complemented by policy follow-through: improved regulation, proactive diplomacy, and attention to the concerns that provoked the freeze in the first place.
This isn’t a full return to “business as usual”; it’s a carefully calibrated step. But it may well mark the beginning of a new chapter in China-India relations—one where competition is tempered with cooperation, and where flight schedules become as meaningful as border patrols.